Preseason Rankings
South Dakota St.
Summit League
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#79
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.6#69
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#47
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#149
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 0.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.3% 55.3% 41.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.9% 4.0% 0.8%
Average Seed 12.6 12.4 13.6
.500 or above 96.3% 98.2% 91.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 97.0% 94.2%
Conference Champion 55.2% 59.6% 44.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four1.7% 1.6% 1.8%
First Round50.5% 54.6% 40.7%
Second Round12.8% 14.9% 7.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 5.3% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.4% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Home) - 70.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 0.90.1 - 0.9
Quad 1b0.2 - 0.50.3 - 1.3
Quad 20.9 - 1.21.2 - 2.5
Quad 35.7 - 3.36.9 - 5.9
Quad 415.2 - 2.022.1 - 7.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 114   Grand Canyon W 77-74 71%    
  Nov 08, 2018 325   Alabama St. W 86-70 96%    
  Nov 16, 2018 179   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 84-77 65%    
  Nov 19, 2018 195   Tulane W 82-74 77%    
  Nov 20, 2018 158   Texas San Antonio W 84-78 70%    
  Nov 21, 2018 180   Colorado St. W 82-75 74%    
  Nov 28, 2018 279   UMKC W 84-72 92%    
  Dec 01, 2018 116   Northern Iowa W 71-68 60%    
  Dec 04, 2018 101   @ Memphis W 77-75 48%    
  Dec 07, 2018 343   Southern W 84-64 98%    
  Dec 11, 2018 353   Savannah St. W 103-79 99%    
  Dec 15, 2018 7   @ Nevada L 77-87 12%    
  Dec 18, 2018 174   @ Eastern Washington W 79-72 63%    
  Dec 22, 2018 73   Montana L 77-78 57%    
  Dec 28, 2018 270   @ Western Illinois W 82-70 78%    
  Jan 03, 2019 169   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 87-80 61%    
  Jan 06, 2019 134   @ South Dakota W 80-76 53%    
  Jan 10, 2019 200   Denver W 79-71 83%    
  Jan 12, 2019 283   Oral Roberts W 82-69 91%    
  Jan 16, 2019 271   @ North Dakota W 86-74 78%    
  Jan 24, 2019 199   North Dakota St. W 79-71 83%    
  Jan 26, 2019 253   Nebraska Omaha W 86-75 88%    
  Jan 31, 2019 283   @ Oral Roberts W 82-69 78%    
  Feb 03, 2019 200   @ Denver W 79-71 67%    
  Feb 09, 2019 271   North Dakota W 86-74 90%    
  Feb 14, 2019 253   @ Nebraska Omaha W 86-75 75%    
  Feb 16, 2019 199   @ North Dakota St. W 79-71 68%    
  Feb 21, 2019 169   Purdue Fort Wayne W 87-80 78%    
  Feb 23, 2019 134   South Dakota W 80-76 71%    
  Mar 02, 2019 270   Western Illinois W 82-70 89%    
Projected Record 22.1 - 7.9 12.3 - 3.7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 6.1 12.1 15.5 13.0 6.4 55.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.5 7.5 4.0 1.2 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.0 3.3 0.9 0.0 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.7 6.0 7.8 12.0 14.5 16.2 16.7 13.0 6.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.4    6.4
15-1 100.0% 13.0    12.6 0.3
14-2 93.0% 15.5    13.3 2.2 0.0
13-3 74.8% 12.1    8.3 3.7 0.2 0.0
12-4 41.9% 6.1    2.8 2.5 0.7 0.0
11-5 16.2% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 55.2% 55.2 43.9 9.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.4% 93.1% 85.8% 7.3% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 51.3%
15-1 13.0% 81.9% 78.1% 3.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.2 2.7 0.8 0.2 2.4 17.1%
14-2 16.7% 68.9% 66.8% 2.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.3 4.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 5.2 6.3%
13-3 16.2% 56.0% 55.0% 1.0% 13.2 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.4 2.6 0.9 0.1 7.1 2.1%
12-4 14.5% 44.2% 44.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.5 0.3 8.1 0.0%
11-5 12.0% 33.4% 33.4% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.6 8.0 0.0%
10-6 7.8% 27.0% 27.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 5.7
9-7 6.0% 16.7% 16.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 5.0
8-8 3.7% 12.0% 12.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 3.2
7-9 1.8% 9.5% 9.5% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
6-10 1.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-11 0.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-12 0.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 51.3% 49.8% 1.5% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.6 4.5 9.9 13.3 9.9 5.8 2.6 48.7 2.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.7 5.4 10.4 36.7 24.6 13.7 0.6 8.4 0.2